Issue 23, December 2005

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This article examines the difficulties experienced by low-income parents, the extent to which particular problems persist over time and the likelihood of multiple difficulties. Two groups of

low-income parents are examined. Parents in the first group received a more than base rate of FTBA, but no income support, when interviewed in March 2004. Their data comes from the Family Tax Benefit Success Group survey. These parents had family income levels beyond the income qualification limits for income support. Median annual earned income for these families was $31,000.

Parents in the second group had lower family income levels. They had started receiving Parenting Payment 18 months prior to the interview and were still receiving Parenting Payment when interviewed in October 2003. Their data comes from the Parenting Payment New Claim Survey Cohort 1.

Parents in the first group (FTBA) were asked whether they were currently experiencing any of

14 specific difficulties. Multiple responses were allowed. Figure 1 shows the 10 most common difficulties of these parents. Financial difficulties were most common, nominated by over

60 per cent of parents. Stress related difficulties were also common, nominated by

Figure 1:  Current difficulties of FTB Part A parents

Figure 2: Number of difficulties of parents receiving FTB Part A above base rate

close to 60 per cent of single parents and over 30 per cent of partnered parents. Over

40 per cent of single and partnered parents said work and family balance was a difficulty

(44 per cent as a proportion of those in work) and over 30 per cent gave stress at work or employment security as difficulties. Children's behaviour and child care were a difficulty for almost 20 per cent of partnered parents and a slightly higher proportion of single parents. Close to 40 per cent of single parents experienced conflict with ex-partner and difficulties with child support. Family relationships were a difficulty for 20 per cent of single parents and 10 per cent of partnered parents.

Figure 2 shows that many parents nominated multiple difficulties. On average, single parents nominated four difficulties while partnered parents nominated two. Only 8 per cent of single parents did not nominate any current difficulties, compared with 21 per cent of partnered parents. Parents who had difficulties with family relationships and children's behaviour were more likely to have many other difficulties.

Figure 3: Difficulties over the past year of Parenting Payment recipients

Parents in the second group (Parenting Payment) were asked in the New Claims Survey whether they had experienced any of 11 specific problems over the previous year. Those who said yes to specific problems were then asked whether they were currently experiencing that problem. They were also asked whether their overall situation had improved or deteriorated compared with one year earlier (major life events had caused them to claim income support 18 months earlier). The specific problems they were asked about excluded three work-related questions asked of the first group, who received a more than base rate of FTBA, and were more likely to be working. Figure 3 shows the nine most common problems.

As the FTBA group of parents was asked about a wider range of difficulties there is no comparison of the number of difficulties between the two groups. However, Figure 3 shows that, similar to the FTBA group, Parenting Payment recipients' most common difficulty was financial, and single parents' second most common difficulty was stress related. Employment security was also a difficulty for high proportions of both single and partnered parents. As with the FTBA group, except for employment security and financial difficulties, the proportions of single parents nominating each difficulty were higher than partnered parents.

Single parents in both the FTBA and Parenting Payment groups experienced similar difficulties. In contrast, a higher proportion of the partnered Parenting Payment recipients nominated difficulties compared with the partnered parents in the FTBA group. These difficulties included financial, employment security, children's behaviour and stress related problems. Partnered Parenting Payment recipients were also more likely than the partnered FTBA parents to have family relationship issues, conflict with the ex-partner, and difficulties with child support.

Figure 4 shows that as with the FTBA group, Parenting Payment recipients were also likely to have experienced multiple difficulties over the past year, particularly single parents. The median number of difficulties nominated by single parents in the Parenting Payment recipient group was three compared with two for partnered parents. The proportion that did not report any difficulties was very similar to the FTBA group: 11.5 per cent of single parents and 22.6 per cent of partnered parents.

Figure 4:  Number of difficulties of Parenting Payment recipients over previous years

Figure 5: Current difficulties for Parenting Payment recipients

Again, as with the FTBA group, those Parenting Payment recipients with children's behaviour and family relationship difficulties were more likely to have six or more difficulties. Parents with family relationship difficulties had the highest median number of difficulties, five for partnered parents and six for single parents. The median number of difficulties for parents with children's behaviour problems was four for partnered parents and six for single parents.

Figure 5 shows employment security and children's behaviour were current difficulties for over

70 per cent of both single and partnered parents. Around one-fifth of Parenting Payment recipients currently had children's behaviour difficulties and around two-thirds were experiencing financial and stress related difficulties. Child support was a problem for 75 per cent of the single parents, and family relationship difficulties for over 60 per cent. Figure 6 shows that those who did not nominate any difficulties over the previous year felt their situation had either improved or stayed the same. The majority of parents with six or more difficulties over the year said their situation had deteriorated. A small minority (15 per cent) of the single parents who had six or more difficulties over the past year felt that their situation had improved. Overall, single parents were more likely than partnered parents to say that their situation was improved from one year earlier.

Figure 6:  Situation improved or declined since a year ago

The most common reasons given for an improved situation were income from employment

(22 per cent), improved relationship with partner or ex-partner (22 per cent), other financial improvements (17 per cent), change in location or accommodation (17 per cent) and for single parents, being more settled or in control (24 per cent). Improved health was only noted by

2 per cent of parents.

The most common reasons given for a worse situation were a decrease in own earnings

(34 per cent), general cost of living (28 per cent), deterioration in own health (19 per cent), and for partnered parents, a loss in partner's earnings (22 per cent) and for single parents, conflict with ex-partner (12 per cent).

This analysis has shown that similar types of problems are common in both FTBA and Parenting Payment recipient groups of low-income parents, particularly employment security, financial and stress related difficulties. Parents with multiple difficulties are more likely to have family relationship and children's behaviour difficulties.

The information presented here is at a broad level. The POLIS datasets provide the potential to learn much more about parents and their difficulties. Parents with particular difficulties, or no difficulties, could be examined in more depth, or common combinations of difficulties could be identified. The difficulties of particular groups can be compared, such as employed and non-employed parents, young and older parents, parents with shared care and those with non-shared care. For example, earlier analysis¹ has shown that respondents to the Parenting Payment New Claim Survey who were in paid employment had a far lower incidence of each difficulty than their non-employed counterparts. Ongoing work on the POLIS datasets will continue to explore these issues and provide more information about the circumstances of low-income parents.

1. Parenting Payment New Claim Survey October 2003, 2002 Cohort, Wave 3 Report, The Social Research Centre
.

Further information:

FaCS: Vic Pearse (Research and Analysis Branch),
tel (02) 6244 5774 or
mail vic.pearse@facs.gov.au

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The report was prepared for the Ministers Conference on the Status of Women of the Australian, State, Territories and New Zealand Governments with funds from the Women's Activities Trust Fund. The research was undertaken by Ciara Smyth and Peter Siminski of the Social Policy Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, and Dr Margot Rawsthorne from the School of Social Work and Policy Studies, University of Sydney. This new research will assist in improving understanding of mothers' labour market experiences, work preferences and the factors that constrain or facilitate their ability to balance their parenting and paid employment roles over the life course.

The research involved in-depth interviews with 20 mothers. The research sought to include a diverse range of women and experiences including lone parents, Aboriginal women, women from non-English speaking backgrounds, and women in non-metropolitan or rural areas. The research also included analyses of quantitative data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey relating to women's labour force participation, family formation, work preferences and life satisfaction.

Some of the key findings of the report include:

• women's work histories are marked by movements in and out of paid work, influenced by caring, study or other circumstances
• a range of different work preferences were expressed by the women, with preferences changing as circumstances changed
• there was no single driving factor that influenced work preference; it was often a number of interacting factors including finances, enjoyment of work, time with children, the importance of career, time out from caring, domestic arrangements, and being a role model
• factors such as available child care, extended families and supportive managers helped to facilitate mothers being able to achieve a good work/life balance
• women's descriptions of what 'makes a good employer' when needing to balance work and family
• many women reported a mismatch between their work preferences and actual work arrangements. For example, women working part time indicated that they would like more hours of work while women working full time would like a reduction.

The research highlights the experiences of a selection of Australian women, illustrating the complexity and diversity of their experiences, and the complex factors that influence their decision making. The Women's Lifework Final Report is available on the Office for Women website (www.ofw.facs.gov.au).

Further information:

FaCS: Paula Mance (Office for Women),
tel (02) 6212 9278 or
email paula.mance@facs.gov.au

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HILDA Survey Research Conference September 2005

The second HILDA Survey Research Conference was held at the University of Melbourne on 29–30 September 2005, with 249 researchers attending and 34 papers being presented. A summary of the FaCS papers presented at the conference appears on pages 12 and 13. A number of papers and presentations from the conference can be downloaded from http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/hilda/conf2005.html.

Seventy participants attended a HILDA User Training Course that was conducted in conjunction with the conference.

Wave 5 update

The initial Wave 5 fieldwork took place between 24 August and 25 October 2005, with responses from 6100 households. Further fieldwork occurred in October and November with the final follow-up period scheduled for February 2006.

The following new topics were included in Wave 5 of HILDA: fertility, personality, school attendance of children, parents' education, leave from employment, benefits of paid employment, initiation of marital separation, household expenditure and carer identification. The Wave 5 survey instruments can be found at http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/hilda/sinstruments.html.

Wave 4 update

The Wave 4 data is due to be released in early 2006. New questions in Wave 4 covered young people's plans and aspirations, the impact of disabilities, take up of private health insurance and religion.

Wave 1, 2 and 3 access arrangements

Release 3.0 of HILDA data became available in January 2005. Release 4.0, comprising Wave 4 data and revised Wave 1, 2 and 3 data, is due out in February 2006. Researchers wishing to obtain the data can apply by downloading the application form and applicable license from the HILDA website. A small fee is payable. Intending FaCS users should email hilda@facs.gov.au for the FaCS application form and IT security form.

Further information:

Enquiries about the HILDA Survey should be directed, in the first instance, to the HILDA
website www.melbourneinstitute.com/hilda,
or to Professor Mark Wooden of the Melbourne Institute,
tel (03) 8344 2089 or email m.wooden@unimelb.edu.au

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Between waves mailout

In the week following 23 May 2005, families who were interviewed as part of Wave 1 during 2004 were sent a newsletter updating them on the study's progress and a short mail-back questionnaire. The questionnaire asked parents to describe what they really liked about their child and, with the infant cohort, there was a series of questions on parent's employment history, maternity leave and employment after the birth of their child. The response rate for the mailout was 70.6 per cent for infants and 72.6 per cent for the 5 to 6 year-olds. Data from this mailout will be available for release to approved researchers in 2006.

Wave 2 dress rehearsal

The Wave 2 dress rehearsal interviews were undertaken during October 2005. The dress rehearsal showed there is a high level of enthusiasm and cooperation for continuing in the study.

Wave 2 data collection

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is undertaking the data collection for Wave 2. The data collection will involve a computer-assisted interview with the parent who knows the child best. This parent will also complete a questionnaire while the interviewer is in the home and self-complete questionnaires will be left behind for both parents to fill in. Two 24-hour time use diaries will be left behind so that the parents can record how the study child spends his/her day. If the child has a parent living elsewhere and the resident parent agrees to provide contact details for the other parent, this parent will also be invited to complete a short questionnaire.

As in Wave 1, the interviewers will undertake some direct assessments of the older cohort of children. For the first time, the children themselves will be interviewed about how they find school, and their feelings more generally. Weight, height and girth measurements will be taken of all the children in the survey. Questionnaires are also being sent to teachers (for the 6 to 7 year-old children) and child carers (for the 2 to 3 year-old children).

The design of Wave 2 is currently being finalised, with data collection scheduled to start in March 2006.

Findings from Wave 1

Early analysis of the data has provided some interesting results, including:

• Seventy-nine per cent of 4 to 5 year-olds had a body mass index within the normal range, 15 per cent were overweight and 6 per cent were obese.
• In the month before the survey, 35 per cent of infants had been looked after by someone other than a parent at regular times during the week.
• Girls in the 4 to 5 year-old cohort showed better outcomes in the learning and social/emotional domains than boys.
• For 4 to 5 year-olds, attendance in care with an education focus (for example, school, preschool, day care with a preschool program) is associated with improved learning scores compared to care settings without an education focus.
• Eighty-nine per cent of 4 to 5 year-old children spent an average of 2.3 hours per day watching television, a video or a DVD.

Additional highlights can be found on the FaCS LSAC website

Preliminary reports on Wave 1 data

Two reports have been completed:

• 'Growing up in Australia, The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, 2004 Annual Report'—The Australian Institute of Family Studies.
• 'Summarising Children's Well-being: The LSAC Outcome Index'—Sebastian Misson, Ann Sanson and the LSAC Outcome Index Working Group, the Australian Institute of Family Studies.

Research using LSAC data

FaCS in-house research

Research projects using LSAC data being conducted within FaCS by the Research Projects Section, Research and Analysis Branch, include:

• 'Parent mental health and child wellbeing, examining pathways and the role of parenting, social and human capital'.
• 'Where, when and why? Exploring risk factors and processes associated with injuries to infants and children in LSAC'.

FaCS-funded research

• 'Childcare usage and the effects of childcare on children's development'.
• 'LSAC Outcome Indicators and the family environment'.
• 'Parenting and families in Australia'—A final report from Curtin University of Technology is expected in April 2006.
• 'How well are Australian infants and 4 to 5 year-old children doing?'—A final report is expected in June 2006.
• 'Mothers, fathers, children and work'—A final report from the Australian Institute of Family Studies is due in April 2006.

External research

Research is also being undertaken by members of the LSAC Consortium Advisory Group (CAG). Themes of the research include:

• job quality and the mental health of working parents and their children
• prevalence and impact of sleep problems
• overweight/obesity, activity patterns, and health
• Australian children's learning readiness at age four
• impact of parents' employment on children's wellbeing
• risk and protective factors for mental health problems.

LSAC/Film Australia documentary

A documentary is being made about Growing Up in Australia to be screened on Australian television in 2006. Families featured in the documentary are not part of the main study. These families have been chosen to represent the diversity of families in the national LSAC study.

Data access

Data from Wave 1 of LSAC is available to interested researchers. FaCS staff wishing to apply for access to LSAC data can obtain the necessary application and an IT systems access form from the FaCS Longitudinal Study of Australian Children intranet site.

Researchers not working at FaCS will be required to complete an application and sign a deed of license. These are available from the Growing up in Australia—The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children website at http://www.aifs.gov.au/growingup/home.html.

Further information:

FaCS: Margaret Wada (Research and Analysis Branch),
tel (02) 6244 7915 or
email margaret.wada@facs.gov.au

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The study is coming toward the end of the trial phase with the research and evaluation activities in the Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area, and Canberra and Queanbeyan near completion. Lessons from the trial phase are being incorporated into the research design for the proposed national study which has three main elements:

• a population based quantitative survey
• qualitative research
• community engagement strategy.

Quantitative survey content development

The major development in the quantitative survey has been to progress the proposed data items for the national study in consultation with key stakeholders.

The general structure of the LSIC Wave 1 rationale compliments that used for the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC); however, it has been modified to meet the specific priorities and considerations of Indigenous children, families and communities. These modifications will still allow the production of data comparable to LSAC (where appropriate) and to other major Indigenous surveys such as the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Survey (NATSISS) and the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey (NATSIHS), for analysis and decision-making as well as for validation purposes.

In developing the content of LSIC FaCS has been cognisant of the need to balance Indigenous community priorities with Australian Government priorities and data requirements. The aim is for LSIC to be useful to both the producers and the 'subjects' of Indigenous and child-centred policy. The acknowledgement and inclusion of items that are important to communities is also key to the success of the LSIC community engagement strategy. Priority has been given to maintaining a balance in accommodating the specific interests and concerns of various Indigenous researchers and agencies.

Finally, LSIC is planned to generate representative nationalised data using a randomly generated clustered sample of children selected across urban, regional and remote locations. The questions must have relevance for these geographical settings and for both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Asking sensible questions is another important element in maintaining respondent cooperation and community trust and support.

The proposed topics and data items in the LSIC Wave 1 rationale are informed by:

• the key research questions outlined in the LSIC draft research proposal
• research priorities identified by communities in the LSIC consultation process
• feedback from the LSIC Steering Committee and Design Sub-committee
• relevant items from the recent Secretariat for National Aboriginal and Islander Child Care (SNAICC) report 'Research Priorities for Indigenous Children and Youth' (2004)
• survey instruments and outcomes from NATSISS and NATSIHS, and the Western Australian Aboriginal Child Health Survey (WAACHS)
• research papers and reports from key institutions such as Centre of Aboriginal Economic Policy Research (CAEPR), Australian Bureau of Statistics, FaCS, and the Cooperative Research Centre for Aboriginal Health.

The major content domains of the survey have been developed, and consultation with Australian and State/Territory Government representatives, non-government organisations and community members has been undertaken to seek input on priority areas. The domains include:

• socio-demographic details
• child health
• primary carer health
• child care
• education
• family functioning
• child functioning
• family history
• community profile.

Each of these domains has had a number of items proposed for inclusion. Feedback from the consultation was presented to a workshop made up of the Steering and Design Sub-committee members on 29 November 2005. The workshop refined and improved the proposed topics and data items and flagged redundant or inappropriate topics and data items for removal. It also identified additional items for inclusion and applied a priority value to each item. This information was given to the Australian Bureau of Statistics to develop into a survey instrument. Some of the items will require cognitive testing and the instrument will be piloted in a number of locations in 2006.

Further information:

FaCS: Melisah Feeney (Research and Analysis Branch),
tel (02) 6244 7545 or
email melisah.feeney@facs.gov.au
web: www.facs.gov.au/

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Three dimensions of retirement—aspirations, expectations and outcomes

Dianna McAlister, Peter McLean and Phil Lindenmayer

With increasing wealth and greater take-up of superannuation, an increasing proportion of Australians can be expected over time to reach Age Pension age with sufficient income and assets to be self-funded. The Government's Intergenerational Report shows that this is expected to be a long-term trend and consistent with maintaining the affordability of the Age Pension system in the long term.

Understanding the intentions and characteristics of self-funded seniors, including their workforce engagement, is important, particularly given their expected growing significance. Understanding (where feasible) changes over time in those characteristics is similarly important.

This paper accesses information contained in HILDA Wave 2 to assess the circumstances of self-funded seniors, and Wave 3 to examine their expectations and intentions for the future.

This paper also utilises administrative data in respect of the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card (CSHC) to investigate the extent to which the circumstances of self-funded seniors who hold a CSHC change over time, in particular the extent to which some qualify for Age Pension later in life. This longitudinal analysis of changes in the circumstances of self-funded seniors may provide some clues as to long-term trends in the financial situation of seniors.

Men and women's fertility differences in achieved fertility, expectations and intentions: a HILDA Survey based analysis

Habtemariam Tesfaghiorghis

As Australia has experienced sustained fertility decline over the last four decades, there has been public concern and debate about the implications of falling fertility and what to do to stabilise or reverse the fertility trend.

Concerns about fertility are focused on period (cross-sectional) fertility, which is the fertility experience of different cohorts of women who gave birth in a particular year or a given period. Period fertility is measured by age-specific fertility rates and/or the total fertility rate.

This paper contributes to the fertility debate by examining whether there are differences between women and their partners in their achieved fertility and future fertility desires, expectations and intentions.

The study is based on primary analysis of the HILDA Survey Waves 1 and 2 datasets. This paper complements previous research on the associations between education, work and fertility, and trends in completed cohort fertility, by bringing differences between women and their partners' future fertility desires and intentions into the picture.

Three main topics are discussed:

• a comparative fertility study of men's and women's achieved fertility, expectations and intentions
• fertility modelling to look at the various scenarios of the completed fertility rate for men and women with incomplete fertility
• analysis of data on men and women who intended to have children (or more children) by when they intended to have a child or the next child.

States of change: family life events and mothers' employment transitions

Justine Gibbings and Carole Heyworth

There has been much interest in the impact of family life events on mothers' employment transitions, particularly in relation to partnering status. Within the Australian literature the absence of any substantial longitudinal data has meant that analysis has either been based on one cross-sectional dataset or occasionally on multiple cross-sections such as repeated Australian Bureau of Statistics surveys or censuses. The exception has been a small number of papers based on the Negotiating the Life Course Survey, which is longitudinal in structure.

Within the three waves of HILDA, women and their children show change on a number of characteristics. For example, women may have children aged 15 years and younger for the entire three waves, or they may move from being childless to having care of children. Conversely they may no longer have care of any dependent children. The children may begin full-time education. The type of child care needed by the mothers will change as children get older. The women's marital status may change. The women may move between different employment states.

This paper uses the three waves of HILDA to examine mothers' employment transitions and to investigate the influence of characteristics that may change over time, and those which may be more stable, on mothers' employment at Wave 3. Characteristics which may change over time include family circumstances (for instance, the number and age of children and marital status), while characteristics such as education may be more stable.

A number of papers and presentations from the conference can be downloaded from the HILDA website at http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/hilda/conf/conf2005/confpapers/hconfpapers.html.

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The use of family-friendly work arrangements by Australian families

This lecture presented by Dr Matthew Gray, Deputy Director (Research) at the Australian Institute of Family Studies, was held on 8 November 2005 at FaCS National Office, Canberra. This review was prepared by Research and Analysis Branch, FaCS.

Although there is a lot known generally about use of family-friendly work arrangements by Australian families, there are some areas in which little is known. For example, there has been little research on the differences between those with child and those with adult caring responsibilities, the differences between lone and partnered mothers, the levels of unmet need for flexible work arrangements, and the job changes that are made (or those people are unable to make) because of caring responsibilities.

Dr Gray discussed the demographic and social changes that have meant an increasing proportion of employees will have adult caring responsibilities into the future. The issues that were discussed included:

• an increase in the percentage of the population that will be in the age bracket 65+
• increasing female employment rates
• increasing divorce rates among the 60+ age group
• fewer children per family
• a shift away from institutional care for adults with a disability.

Dr Gray also highlighted that there will be increasing numbers of adults with both adult and child caring responsibilities as delayed fertility and increased female labour force participation begin to impact on the population.

Dr Gray performed his analysis on the Supplement to the Monthly Population Survey. This survey is carried out by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in New South Wales only and includes topics such as the type of work arrangements used to care (past six months), additional work arrangements desired (past six months), job changes made and unable to be made because of caring responsibilities (past six months), whether caring responsibilities influenced the decision to become self-employed and a wide range of family, demographic and labour market information. Dr Gray's analysis excluded those respondents with paid caring responsibilities.

Results from the analysis showed that there are differences between men and women when their employment by type of caring responsibility is compared. Women with caring responsibilities (either children only, adults only or both adult and children caring responsibilities) were less likely than men with caring responsibilities to be employed.

In addition, among those with caring responsibilities, women were more likely than men to access flexible work arrangements. Women were also more likely than men to report that they had an unmet need for flexible work arrangements in the past six months, and more likely to report they had made some form of job change in order to provide care. However, among men, those with caring responsibilities for adults only had the lowest levels of employment when compared to men with child, adult and child, or no caring responsibilities.

Dr Gray then examined those who reported being a contractor or self-employed. He found that if a woman reported being a contractor or self-employed, they were more likely than men to report that they became self-employed or a contractor to make caring easier; however, a greater percentage of men reported that they were either a contractor or self-employed.

In terms of lone and partnered mothers, Dr Gray highlighted that there was a difference in the employment rate of lone and couple mothers (48 per cent versus 61 per cent). However, for those mothers in employment, lone mothers were more likely to use flexible work arrangements and were also more likely to report an unmet need for flexible work arrangements for caring responsibilities than partnered mothers.

When reporting the reasons for unmet need for flexible work arrangements, lone mothers were more likey to report not applying for flexible work arrangements as they thought their boss would say no. They were also more likely to report that not being paid for time off discouraged them for asking for the use of flexible work arrangements.

Dr Gray concluded the lecture by commenting that although levels of unmet need for

family-friendly work arrangements are relatively low for all employees with caring responsibilities, these responsibilities are a major reason for women with all types of caring responsibilities and men with adult caring responsibilities not being in paid employment.

In addition, key findings show that men with adult and child care responsibilities had similar rates of use of family-friendly work arrangements as women with these responsibilities. Women with child only care responsibilities have higher rates of use of family-friendly work arrangements than men with child only caring responsibilities. Dr Gray also commented that the issue of having both child and adult care responsibilities would become increasingly important as the population ages and would impact on family life.

Dr Gray's final comments highlighted that lone mothers have a higher rate of use of family-friendly work arrangements than partnered mothers. Lone mothers were more likely than partnered mothers to report using shift work, paid leave, and casual employment and partnered mothers were more likely than lone mothers to use part-time employment.

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Professor McDonald began his lecture by examining Australia's demography in 1945 and 1975. Without the demographic changes that occurred during that time (the Baby Boom, the continued fall in mortality, post-war immigration and the declining fertility rate) Australia's population today would be eight million, rather than 20 million.

Professor McDonald then cited two government reports that examine Australia's demographic future up to 2040, the 2002 'Intergenerational Report' and the 2005 'Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia'.

He argued that both reports are limited in five ways. The first point was that the timeframe that the reports use (projections to 2040) is too short. Professor McDonald argued that most ageing in Australia will take place from 2020 as the large cohort of the 'baby boomers' moves into older age, and as the effects of lower mortality and fertility from the 1970s are felt. As a result, ageing is a 100-year phenomenon and projections should take this into account.

Highlighting this argument, Professor McDonald presented a series of population projections. As an example, if the fertility rate was to fall to 1.3 by 2019, life expectancy was to increase to 95 years for women, and immigration was to remain at current levels, the percentage of the population aged 65 and older would be 18 per cent in 2019, 28 per cent in 2039, and by 2099 would have reached 43 per cent.

The second point argued by Professor McDonald was that large shifts in demographic variables are possible, but have not been taken into consideration in the government reports he examined. For example, the decline in the fertility rate in Europe during the 19th century was not predicted and neither was the speed and extent of the post-1970 upward movement in life expectancy.

The lack of differentiation of ageing by location, sex and living arrangement was the third point that Professor McDonald presented in his argument. For example, he examined regional measures of ageing in New South Wales and showed that while in 2016 the percentage of those aged 65+ across Australia would be around 16 per cent, the percentage in that age group on the mid North Coast of NSW would be 27 per cent and would be only 13 per cent in the Outer South of Sydney. Further projections have shown that by 2031, the Richmond Tweed area, the mid North Coast and the South Eastern coastal regions will become impossibly old relative to the local labour force. Professor McDonald commented that something will have to change within a relatively short period of time, but there is very little discussion of this in the current government reports.

Professor McDonald then spoke on the ageing of the labour force. As the falls in or slowing of growth of labour supplies in advanced economies stem from past falls in fertility, the impacts are very heavily concentrated at the young end of the labour market (under 40 years). In most countries, the number of older workers will increase while the number of younger workers will fall.

Does this matter? Professor McDonald argued that young workers are necessary as they hold the most recent qualifications within an organisation. In addition, he discussed psychological literature on types of intelligence: fluid intelligence (the ability to develop new techniques for the solution of problems that are complex and unusual) and crystallised intelligence (the ability to bring previously acquired problem-solving methods to bear on a current problem). The former is present in younger people and declines sharply after the age of 40 and the latter declines very slowly with age. Professor McDonald agued that because of the different types of intelligence, productivity within an organisation is highest when there is a mixture of older workers applying crystallised intelligence and younger workers applying fluid intelligence. Consequently, the 'work longer' policy response is inadequate.

Finally, the fifth item that Professor McDonald discussed as a limitation in current government reports on ageing was the lack of consideration of the implications for Australia of ageing in other countries. He argued that analysis of ageing conventionally fails to take into account the potential impacts on the Australian economy of ageing in other countries, and ageing will have a substantial impact on the nature of consumption, production, productivity, savings and investment in these countries.

Professor McDonald highlighted that in 2000, China had 199 million people aged 15 to 24 years (age of labour market entry), Europe, including Russia, had 101 million and Japan 16 million. However, by 2050 it is predicted that the number of people aged 15 to 24 years in those countries will fall to 96 million, 58 million and 8 million respectively. This decline and ageing of labour supply will affect the productivity, production and investment of affected countries and regions. This will gradually erode any opposition to immigration and these countries will become aggressive players in the international labour recruitment market.

In closing, Professor McDonald stressed that these dramatic international shifts cannot fail to have profound effects upon the Australian economy. Ageing means that the world will be a very different place by 2050, and Australia will continue to need good quality demographic research.

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Ms Hewitt examined the differences in social characteristics that may exist between those who initiate a separation or divorce and those who do not, with the aim of answering such questions as:

• Why more women tend to initiate marital separation then men?
• What are the social characteristics that differentiate between male initiated and female initiated marital separation?
• If a woman has a premarital birth is her marriage more likely to end? If so, who is more likely to initiate separation, herself or her husband?

The report makes two main contributions to previous research in this area. First, while prior studies offer some explanation for the tendency of women to initiate marriage breakdown, research that specifically investigates differences between male initiated and female initiated marital separation is lacking. Second, to the authors' knowledge no prior research has examined the associations between the broader social correlates of marriage breakdown and initiator status.

Old-Age Income Support in the 21st Century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform

In this lecture presented in August 2005, a leading international authority on pensions, Mr Robert Holzmann, Sector Director of the Social Protection Department of the World Bank, discussed the World Bank's recent position paper on pension systems and reforms, entitled 'Old-Age Income Support in the 21st Century'.

Mr Holzmann discussed the World Bank's perspective on pension reform, including lessons learned from recent experience and research that has advanced the understanding of how best to proceed in the future with pension policies and priorities.

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Economic studies of community

Economists view community both as something that can be explained by economic phenomena but also as an explanation for economic outcomes; that is, the community itself can be the object of interest, or the nature of community can help to explain other objects of interest. To enable unambiguous interpretation it is necessary that key variables in any economic analysis be rigorously defined.

Perhaps the most pervading view of community is that of a spatially defined group of interest—a small town, a suburb or neighbourhood. While it is certainly possible to speak of communities of interest and virtual communities, the spatial paradigm is the most compelling and the one employed in this paper.

The authors argue that there are a number of important implications that arise from the application of economic perspectives to community development:

• A mainstream economic perspective suggests that economic phenomena can largely explain the long-term growth and development of towns, cities and regions, and therefore of communities. These economic phenomena include increasing returns to scale, external economies, and transport costs. While governance structures, the whims of important individuals, social, cultural, language and religious imperatives can all influence the pattern of growth and development of towns and cities, the enduring drivers are economic forces.
• An economic paradigm can be used to characterise and classify regions (and communities) and to explain phenomena that affect communities. In Australia, issues of rural depopulation and the drivers of regional growth have become of key importance.
• There are a number of economic tools that are useful for describing development within regions and communities. Regional input-output models seek to capture all of the important measured economic linkages between economic agents within the region and between it and the outside world. Private sector development within a region is amenable to analysis by all manner of business management tools and there are public sector evaluation methods such as cost-benefit analysis, and social indicator analysis.

Neighbourhood studies

The review outlines a second line of research embodying concepts of community—the neighbourhood literature. This literature began with sociological studies, which aimed to explain differences among neighbourhoods and consequential differences in the life chances of residents. Two themes have been stressed in this work:

• If populations are fully mobile they will adjust to neighbourhood disadvantage by exiting. However, physical and social capital fixity may constrain movement.
• The human capital externalities that arise from the characteristics of the neighbourhood. Numerous studies indicate that the educational achievements, employment prospects and career success of residents are affected by the nature of the neighbourhood.

Social capital

Social scientists from a number of disciplines have found it useful to characterise the strengths and weaknesses of communities using the concept of social capital. Statistical associations have been shown between high levels of social capital and a range of benefits, including the development of pluralist democracy, improved physical health, self-rated happiness, public safety and enhanced economic performance and efficiency. In this review the authors suggest that some of these associations are merely correlated, while others are almost certainly causal.

They find that Australia appears to have high levels of social capital in comparison with other Western countries. Among Australian communities there is variation depending on levels of urban density, income and ethnicity. A much-debated issue is the interpretation of high within-group levels of social capital among immigrant groups. While there are some economic advantages arising from dense networks within groups, these can sometimes be at the expense of more valuable contacts with 'mainstream' groups, especially once the initial phase of immigrant adjustment is complete.

Strengthening communities

Public policy aims to enhance social capital and community outcomes. However, it is not clear whether policies that target communities rather than individuals make the most effective use of public money. In some circumstances targeting will unnecessarily reward those not in need and divert resources from those who are in need. On the other hand, community based policies may promote social capital and generate externalities, thereby increasing effectiveness.

Evaluation of Australian and UK community-based programs suggests some useful guidelines which may be applied to community policies. These include:

• multi-agency formulation and delivery of programs including representation of the private, public and the voluntary sectors
• an emphasis on capacity building and sustainability
• leveraging of funding from a variety of sources
• strategies which aim to develop human capital as well as physical capital
• emphasis on building linkages between communities
• planned and longitudinal (not just post hoc) evaluation of programs.

Some concluding issues

The review concludes that despite the difficulties in defining communities, there does appear to be increasing interest in and public support for community based service delivery. However, the potentially increased responsibility of community organisations raises issues to do with their governance and accountability. For example, the paper reviews concerns that many do not adequately represent all key stakeholders and may not be well equipped to handle increased government funding.

Some issues of measurement are also reviewed. A number of studies have been undertaken in Australia measuring social capital and indicators of community progress more generally. However, researchers have not agreed upon a common set of principles for measuring community strength and social capital. With this in mind, the authors conclude their review by suggesting four key principles of measurement:

• Distinguish between the structure (size, density) of community networks and their content (norms of trust, reciprocity and participation).
• Specify precisely the geographical area and/or type of organisation to which measures apply.
• Develop measures of community/networks/social capital which can validly be presented at both individual and aggregate levels.
• Always assess the costs and benefits of social capital empirically and never assume that all social capital is benign.

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Statistical Paper 1

Income support customers: a statistical overview 2002

Income support customers: a statistical overview 2002 provides a snapshot of the number and demographic characteristics of income support recipients. Income support payments cater for different circumstances, such as disability, sickness, unemployment, caring and parenting responsibilities.

The publication is expected to provide a ready source of payment information and data for government, university and research institutions, community organisations, and international welfare agencies.

The paper represents a collaborative approach to working in FaCS, with branches from across the department contributing to the final paper. Additionally, cooperation was obtained from the Australian Government Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, the Australian Government Department of Education, Science and Training, and Centrelink.

Key highlights from the paper include:

• information on eligibility criterion for income support payments administered by FaCS
• time series data for income support payments from 1992–2002
• data on customer characteristics, such as age, gender, duration on payment, state and territory, home ownership status and country of birth
• data on short-term and long-term unemployed customers, as well as mature age income support recipients
• information on Family Tax Benefit customers and child care support services
• an overview of the diversity and economic importance of Australia's social security arrangements with overseas countries.

The paper will be available on the FaCS website under 'Statistical Papers'.

It is anticipated that the 2003 and 2004 Statistical Overviews will be released in early 2006.

To order publications:

Hardcopies are available from the FaCS publications order line tel 1800 050 009. Electronic versions are available from the FaCS website at www.facs.gov.au (follow the links 'publications' › 'research').

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14th Australian Research in Early Childhood Education (ARECE) Conference

23–25 January 2006
Monash University, Peninsula Campus, Melbourne, Victoria

Further information:
web: http://www.education.monash.edu.au/research/news/arececonference.html

NIFTeY 2006 National Conference (National Investment for the Early Years)

NIFTeY Australia
8–9 February 2006
University of NSW, Scientia Building, Sydney, New South Wales

Further information:
tel: (02) 9437 9333
email: louise@conferenceaction.com.au

People in Place in People—1st International Symposium on Environment, Behaviour and Society

The Environment, Behaviour and Society Research Group
9–11 February 2006
Sydney, New South Wales

Further information:
email: EBSsymposium2006@arch.usyd.edu.au
web: www.arch.usyd.edu.au/web/research/ebs/ebssymposium.html

Helping Families Change Conference—Innovation and Evidence Based Practice

The University of Queensland's Parenting and Family Support Centre
16–17 February 2006
University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland

Further information:
web: http://www.pfsc.uq.edu.au

The Great Australian Dream? Waking Up to Homelessness—4th National Homelessness Conference

Australian Federation of Homelessness Organisations
1–3 March 2006
Sydney, New South Wales

Further information:
web: www.afho.org.au/conference/index.htm›

Early Childhood Intervention Australia: 7th Biennial National Conference

South Australian Chapter of Early Childhood Intervention Australia
5–7 March 2006
Adelaide, South Australia

Further information:
web: www.cdesign.com.au/ecia2006

11th National Conference on Volunteering

7–10 March 2006
Melbourne, Victoria

Further information:
email: volunteering2006@icms.com.au
web: www.volunteering2006.com

Disclaimer

Readers should confirm conference details through the contacts listed. FaHCSIA assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of dates, venues or other information presented in this selection.

To submit details of upcoming seminars or conferences, please email: publications.research@fahcsia.gov.au.

Research and Analysis Branch
Australian Government Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
Box 7576 Canberra Mail Centre ACT 2610
web: www.fahcsia.gov.au/research

Editorial enquiries:
tel: (02) 6244 5458
fax: (02) 6244 6589
email: publications.research@fahcsia.gov.au

FaHCSIA Research News is released quarterly.