Executive summary
A sharp rise in Australian unemployment during 1974 was attributed to an exceptionally severe recession. In hindsight, it appears to mark a structural shift in the labour market, although not quite the beginning of that shift. By 2001, much had changed in the national economy, the composition of the labour force, and forms and conditions of employment.
Notable trends included:
- relative decline in employment in production industries and corresponding growth in service industries;
- growth of female employment, including women with children and women in older age-groups, and relative decline of male employment, especially but not only in older age-groups;
- growth of part-time employment, especially of females but also of males, although from a low base;
- unprecedented growth in proportions of adolescents and young adults of both sexes, but especially females, in full-time education; and
- substantial and economically significant participation of full-time students in part-time employment.
Those trends were widely recognised, although causes were often obscure, and their regularity implied that they must eventually be self-limiting. Remarkably, total labour supply, calculated as hours worked per head of adult population, remained nearly constant. Some reputed trends were neither confirmed nor clearly disproved by the statistical evidence. For instance, it could not be shown that employment in general had become less secure, nor that employment for wage or salary declined in relation to other forms.
In the past 30 years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) modified some categories and sometimes produced significant corrections. Overall, however, the statistics did not keep up with changes in the labour market, and some became misleading or at least open to misunderstanding. Examples include casual employment and self-employment:
- the term 'casual employment' has had a variety of meanings, and the relevant statistical category corresponded exactly to none of them;
- 'self-employment' has included several different arrangements, but the statistics neither covered the whole category nor distinguished between types; and
- the extent of changes in organisational practice reputed or demonstrated by research, such as growth in fixed-term contracts of employment and in business services supplied under contract, could not be determined.
By 2001, the monthly ABS Labour Force Survey was undergoing the most comprehensive revision since 1978. New tax provisions designed to confine certain concessions to 'genuine independent contractors', and changes to industrial awards intended to discourage unnecessary and inappropriate use of 'casual' contracts of employment might also contribute to clarity, if indirectly.
The effects of technical innovations, especially in information technology, had been much discussed, but their nature and extent was unclear. They were most apparent in how work was performed, and therefore to some degree in who performed it. Examples included retailing, financial services and office work generally.
The labour market might prove to have reached or be approaching an equilibrium, very different from that of 30 years ago. One implication for public policy could be that people whose employment and earnings were secondary to other activities and sources would continue to make up a high proportion of the workforce.